Romania’s perspective of joining the EU improved Standard&Poor’s rating from stable to positive. The economic and institutional performances contributed to the favourable evaluation. S&P maintained the “BBB-“and “A-3” ratings for Romania’s long-term and short-term debt levels in foreign and national currencies.
The agency forecasts a 5-5.5 %growth of the GDP on short term that will yield a $9000 revenue/capita by the end of 2010.
The accession to the EU will produce a growth of the commercial deficit from 0.8% to 2-3% of the GDP. This will eventually lead to the growth of the public debt. The public debt represented 20% of the GDP in 2005 compared to the average of 45% recorded in the countries BBB rated. S&P considers that the debt will not exceed 25% of the GDP by 2010.
The account deficit estimated at 10% of the GDP for 2006 will not drop significantly by the end of the decade. The foreign investments will compensate the growth of the external debt.
