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Economists, bankers, analysts estimated macro numbers for the end of 2010: inflation 8.5%, unemployment 8.5%, euro/ron exchange rate 4.3, economic shrinkage 2.5% 

de A.C
Marţi, 13 iulie 2010, 11:27 English | Business

2010 is a pretty difficult year that will end with a medium unemployment rate of 8.5%, an exchange rate at 4.3 lei/euro and an economic shrinkage of 2.5% - this is what most bankers and analysts questioned by agree on. 21 personalities in the Romanian economy calculated the main macro-indicators for the next three months, six months and twelve months. 

Inflation: 8.5% by the end of the year, 6% in June 2011 
Bankers were most optimistic as they put forward an inflation rate between 7-8% with few exceptions 

Exchange rate: 4.3 euro/ron by the end of the year and 4.2 in June 2011 
Opinions diverged most on this issue. Some estimated a 4.2 lei/euro for the end of the year while others talked about a 4.4 exchange rate. All agreed that the Central Bank will not allow higher fluctuations of the national currency. 

Economic increase: in 2010 the economy will decrease by 2-3% while 2011 will bring about increase 
The good news is that all people agreed that 2011 will bring about economic increase. For June 2011, the economic increase is quoted at 1% or even 2%. Some risks against an economic increase: a drop in consumption, VAT recovery to 19%, an increase in the exchange rate. 

Unemployment rates: 8.5% in 2010 
All economists agreed that unemployment will rest at 8.5% for 2010 and 8% for 2011. Unemployment is a direct effect of measures implemented by the government to exit the crisis. The more efficient the measures, the lower the unemployment rate. 

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