"Goods exports will diminish in 2009 by 15.5%, and goods imports - by 25.4%, as a result of the industrial production shrinkage", according to the Convergence Programme hat Romania sent to the European Commission. The report shows foreign investment will lose half of its 2008 value, but is estimate to recover in 2010 and 2011.
Other information regarding foreign trade and investments (source: Romanian Ministry of Public Finance)
- Inter-community good exports and imports will shrink by 12.9% and 21.9%, respectively. The extra-community exports will reduce by 31.9%.
- The current account deficit for external payments is expected to amount to 9.4 billion euros, meaning 7.5% of the GDP, as a 43.4% decrease in the commercial deficit.
- Given the current global financial crisis, 2009 is expected to see a 50% reduced foreign investment as compared with 2008, meaning 4.5 billion euros.
- If the economic downturn will be stopped in 2010 and should the economy start to recover in 2011, 2010 will se a 5.5% increase in gods exports and a 2.8% increase in the imports. In 2011, the exports are estimated to meet a 6.2% increase, whereas imports will see a 4.8% increase.
- If the estimates are right, the commercial deficit will shrink by 4.3% in 2010, but will increase slightly in 2011.
- The intercommunity exports are estimated to grow by 3.5% in 2010 and by 3.7% in 2011. The intercommunity imports should see a 0.4% and 2.5%, respectively, appreciation.
- The current account deficit will remain between 9 and 10 billion euros, amounting to 6.5% in 2010 and to 6.3% in 2011.
- In 2010 and 2011, the balance of the current transfers will keep a stable 5.5% approximately.
At the same time, the European Commission's spring forecast anticipates a drop in the current account deficit for 2009 and 2010, as the international trade shrinks:
- 7.5% of the GDP is the prognosis for 2009 (it was 12.3% in 2008), and 6.1% in 2010.
- The estimates see foreign investment to reach 5.4 billion euros in 2009 and 5.6 billion euros in 2010.