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Oxford Analytica: imminent pact between Liberals and Social Democrats. President Basescu could fail to coalize pro-reform forces

de A.C.
Joi, 3 aprilie 2008, 10:08 English | Top News

More and more signals indicate the existence of an imminent pact between PM Tariceanu's Liberals and Social Democrats, despite the ideological break between the two parties, an Oxford Analytica analysis shows published in late March. According to the analysis, Liberals (PNL) and Social Democrats (PSD) have lots of things in common including the way the two parties vote in the Parliament and the fact that they both oppose to push for a transparent decision. summarizes the most important points in the analysis of the publication. Thus, Liberals have allied with political and economic forces prone to monopolize key state positions and block any inconvenient change.
At the other side of the spectrum, Social Democrats have formed an oligarchy within the state and took advantage of the former Communist forces disentangled in the 90's.  Thus, Tariceanu's government is sustained by tycoons and bureaucrats and has the support of the media, mostly controlled by tycoons.

The study shows that current PSD leader Mircea Geoana might loose the leadership of the Party to former PSD PM Adrian Nastase or former PSD President Ion Iliescu who are considered to lead the oligarchic move.

Concerning President Basescu, the study reads that he will have to act quick and with confidence in order to grasp his powers. However, the Presidential administration does not have the real capacity to apply the President's pro-reform messages.

The main conclusion of the study is that the political deadlock might continue in the following electoral cycle, if President Basescu will fail to mobilize the population for a coherent reform program.

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