Sociologist Dan Dungaciu, one of the scholars with the largest knowledge of the situation in the Republic of Moldova, has spoken in a live Q&A session with readers about the victory of the Communist Party in last weekend's general elections in the ex-Soviet republic and about its impact on relations with Bucharest.

Dan Dungaciu, PhD of the Faculty of Sociology at the University of Bucharest, is author of the volume "Moldova ante portas".

According to Dan Dungaciu:

  • In order to be successful, an orange revolution in Moldova would have to be supported by the US. Their involvement in the "revolutions" in Kiev and Tbilisi is notorious. But the US have other priorities for the moment. Europe would not react in a significant manner
  • The question is - how strong and lasting can an anti-communist movement in Chisinau be as 40-50% of the population has voted for communists? How long can protesters cope with the communist's state machine?
  • In order to be successful, a revolution, no matter its color, must be domestically and legally motivated and sufficiently supported by the public. External support only comes third
  • There is an obvious difference between the level of individuals' relations and political relations between Romania and the Republic of Moldova. While political "acceptance" was difficult, at personal level relations cannot be considered cold or difficult
  • A 5% difference has been noted between final results and exit-polls, a percentage that can change the winner or at least might have offered the opposition another margin for negotiation. Unless evidence comes up about "stolen" percentages, the rule of "until proven guilty" applies here
  • Regarding the Romanian government, in case of obvious and probed evidence that elections were subject of fraud, it can as a contractual party of the European Convention for Human Rights to act judicially based on Article 33 of the Convention. Moldova is also part of the Convention
  • There are two "Republics of Moldova", in a simple way of talking things. One of the young, educated, pro-Western, urban people, who would not watch Russian channels and looks West for their future. And the second - of the rural, Russia-leaning, nostalgia-affected people who are connected to the East.
  • I don't believe the mechanism of citizenship - Moldova citizens obtaining Romanian citizenship - should be seen as a tool of European integration for Moldova. Still, the continuation in Chisinau of a regime which has proven the roughest towards Romania since 1990 would not be of much help for promoters of the idea to simplify procedures in Bucharest