Some of the estimates put forward by the National Central Bank analysts are: Euribor level of 0.79% in 2010 and 1.16% in 2011; a euro - dollar rapport estimated at 1.26 across 2011; requests to increase salaries. They denounce the unpredictable character of the fiscal policy that represents a risk generating factor, according to the report on inflation released recently.
The current forecast for the euro - dollar exchange rate sees a stable rate with values close to the current ones of 1.27 for the rest of the current year and 1.26 for 2011. The indirect impact of the VAT increase over the inflation rate - effects that do not dissipate necessarily after four quarters: requests to increase salaries, increase of sales prices by economic agents that sell products with a small VAT rate to cover the increase in production costs, recorvery of initially lost margins by producers.
Investments will positively contribute to the GDP increase in the second half of 2011. The scenario for the euro zone economy sees a modest recovery.
