Romania’s National Central Bank increased the estimate of the inflation for the end of the year to 5.1%, National Central Bank Governor Mugur Isarescu said when presenting the quarterly report on the inflation. He said that the estimate does not include the increase of prices in thermal energy that might happen this autumn.

Mugur Isarescu’s most important statements

  • The inflation rate maintained in the targeted interval for the first three months  

  • Some factors that contributed: increases in the food product prices, petrol price increases  

  • The persistence of the demand deficit tempered inflationary pressures and so did the national currency’s appreciation to the dollar by 4%  

  • Mostly, what determined the inflation increase in the last four months were the high food product prices with internal and external causes. 

  • Internal production started counter balancing foreign shocks to a greater extent  

  • Food products prices increased the most in Bulgaria, but Romania is on the second place 

  • Even though prices increased less in Romania than in Bulgaria, the impact was felt harder  

  • Other factors that contributed to price increases were evolutions in North Africa and the impact over the price of petrol. Conditions on the labor market favor disinflation. All indicators point to that  

  • Our estimates are based on the hypothesis that steadily, the economy is recovering. 

  • We plead for such an evolution because it will also be long term  

  • We expect monthly inflations to be lower in the upcoming months  

  • The estimate for the end of the year is 5.1% and does not include the thermal energy price increase scheduled for this fall