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CNP: Romania's economy will shrink by 7.7% this year, but will recover to positive figures in 2010

de Dragos Comache, transl/adapt. C.B.
Vineri, 25 septembrie 2009, 11:50 English | Business

Romania's economy will drop 7.7% this year, the National Prognosis Commission (CNP) estimates in its autumn preliminary report. This downgrades the previous prognosis, which estimated the GDP to drop by 4%. Next year, the institution foresees an economic increase of 0.5%, a better forecast against 0.1%, the figure of the initial report.

CNP analysts believe that Romania's economy will appreciate to by 0.1% in the second 2010 quarter against the previous quarter. For the years to follow, CNP maintained their initial economic increase prediction. According to CNP, Romania's GDP will increase by 2.4% in 2011 and by 3.7% in 2012, while in 2013 and 2014 the country's economy will increase by 4.4% and by 5.2% respectively.

CNP downgraded their initial prediction for the 2009 current account deficit as well, from 7.5% to 4.6% of the GDP. The current account deficit will record a significant drop compared with last year's figures, namely 12.3%. This means that it will shrink by roughly 10 billion euros, from 16.89 billion euros to 5.38 billion euros.

The current deficit is estimated to record a deficit below 5% in the years to come. CNP predicts that it will increase slightly next year, to 4.8% of the GDP, and it will start dropping from 2011, reaching to 4.2% of the GDP in 2014.

The commercial balance sold will drop to 5.74 billion euros from 18.37 billion euros in 2008. Come the new year, it will increase again, reaching 11.88 billion euros in 2014.

CNP analysts estimate that Romania's inflation will reach 4.3% this year and 4.5% at the end of 2010. But the inflation is estimated to drop to 2% by 2014. The mean inflation rate is 5.5% in 2009 and will drop constantly to 2.3% in 2014.

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