An ING Bank analysis shows that the current political crisis increases the risks of the country’s economy to continue shrinking in the final year quarter. But ING maintains its GDP forecast, namely that it will record a 0.5% increase during October - December 2009. The risks are growing in importance, with reduced chances for a quick end to the political crisis.
"Even if we expect the GDP to go up in the final quarter with 0.5% against the previous quarter, we currently note rising risks for a new economy contraction as a consequence of the political crisis", the analysis shows.
With these in mind, the bank's analysts believe that the drop in the 2009 GDP could be bigger than the ING 7.5% forecast.
Romania’s economy shrank by 7.6% during the first semester, the GDP amounting to 48.8 billion euros.